Betting on Obama

As everyone knows, Barack Obama and John McCain are winding up for a historic campaign to become the next president of the United States.  The election is still months away, but that’s not keeping speculators from betting on the results.  The map above shows how interested parties with real money at stake are predicting the November election. 

Intrade is a “prediction market” that essentially lets you bet on anything.  You can wager on whether the positive results Dr. Yoshiaki Arata’s cold fusion experiment will be replicated successfully; you can put money down that the Incredible Hulk will gross less than $50 million on its opening weekend; and you bet that the Supreme Court will hold the District of Columbia’s anti-handgun law unconstitutional.  All these trades are made with real money, and members who predict correctly receive the money of members who don’t.  Intrade, then, is an excellent way to tap into the “wisdom of crowds.”

Intrade’s most recent success has been bets on the results of the upcoming November presidential election.  These predicted results are illustrated via a simple map, above–with red for Republican states, blue for Democratic states, and gray for states that are too close to call.  Click here or on the picture above to see a larger version of the map.

The current Intrade favorite is Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee.  Betters have him winning Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and making a strong showing in Virginia and Nevada.  McCain does well in this election too, with clear wins in Florida and Missouri, but it wouldn’t be enough to get him to the White House. 

The site updates the map “at least weekly” and allows you to scroll through previous versions.  So far, they closely resemble the map above.  Nevertheless, McCain’s fortunes can change quickly.  Although Obama is trading at over $61 per share, McCain still brings in $34 per share that he will be the eventual election winner. 

About these ads

28 Responses to “Betting on Obama”


  1. 1 web page August 3, 2013 at 7:20 am

    Excellent post. Keep posting such kind of info on your page.
    Im really impressed by it.
    Hi there, You’ve performed a fantastic job. I’ll definitely
    digg it and in my opinion suggest to my friends. I’m sure they’ll be benefited
    from this website.

  2. 2 webpage January 5, 2014 at 6:44 pm

    If some one wishes to be updated with latest technologies afterward he must be visit this
    site and be up to date all the time.

  3. 3 canon sx170 review February 3, 2014 at 5:02 am

    5inches of LCD screen and comes with an optical viewfinder and has
    color filter lens. Some of the impressive features of these
    cameras are; outstanding Image Quality (up to 21. Taking Artist, Outkast, “Andre 3000″ sings some sort of song, termed “Hey Ya”.

  4. 4 ThreadPit Offer Code February 3, 2014 at 12:34 pm

    I am genuinely thankful to the holder of this website who has shared this fantastic paragraph at here.

  5. 5 Yizzam Promotion Code February 21, 2014 at 2:36 pm

    Hi there, everything is going well here
    and ofcourse every one is sharing data, that’s really fine, keep up writing.

  6. 6 krill oil reviews February 25, 2014 at 11:01 am

    I don’t mind that it smelled of fish, but it sure
    wasn’t pleasant. Neptune krill oil or krill oil Australia has lots of benefits for our health.
    Fortunately, supplementation is much more user friendly.

  7. 7 setting up a website April 16, 2014 at 7:20 pm

    I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post
    was good. I don’t know who you are but certainly you’re going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already ;) Cheers!

  8. 8 goleta beach taxes April 19, 2014 at 3:28 pm

    Good way of telling, and fastidious post to get data about my presentation subject matter,
    which i am going to convey in institution of higher education.

  9. 9 find cosmetic dentist April 24, 2014 at 6:11 pm

    I know this web site gives quality depending content and other
    material, is there any other web site which presents
    such things in quality?

  10. 10 Heavy Duty Towing April 29, 2014 at 9:33 pm

    Although the job requires minimal educational requirements, most employers are more inclined
    to promote or hire those with at least an associate’s degree.

    The Reno Air Race met or exceeded all of the requirements stipulated
    by the FAA. Top Cities to Look for Gaming Manager Job
    Openings based on Popularity of Demand Compared to Other U.

  11. 11 automaty samosprzedajace May 6, 2014 at 12:27 pm

    An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been
    conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact ordered me breakfast
    simply because I stumbled upon it for him… lol. So
    let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks
    for spending time to talk about this issue here
    on your web site.

  12. 12 diet and nutrition plans May 8, 2014 at 7:54 am

    This isn’t about another diet or even depriving yourself.
    It’s easy to make vegetables just as tasty by boiling
    or steaming them as they are when fried. Have you wondered if there are some simple ways to help motivate
    your kids towards a healthier lifestyle.

  13. 13 waxing in Newmarket May 8, 2014 at 8:10 am

    The waving hands propel the girl from the right all the way
    to the last dancer on the left. It was suggested that I may need to go to the emergency room, but
    I hate going to the hospital, so I was instructed to
    rest and drink as much water as possible to flush the medication out of my system.
    Germany’s dark days of history began in 1933 when the Hitler
    government was able take full legislative power through emergency decree after the fire in the Reichstag.

  14. 14 sufre de insomnia May 8, 2014 at 8:15 am

    Woody Harrelson – Woody Harrelson is one of several Hollywood stars who’ve settled
    down on Maui to find a more peaceful life out of the spotlight.
    Managing these situations from a public relations point of view is crucial to the stars maintaining a positive image.
    Whether lighting crews need to secure electrical wiring,
    costumers need to make last-minute alterations or set designers
    need to fix a painting to a set wall, this miracle tape
    will always come to the rescue.

  15. 15 Www.Docin60.com May 8, 2014 at 12:39 pm

    Slowly due to the advent of medical insurance sector opening up everywhere Healthcare people
    have started to understand the use and importance of technology.

    When it comes to medical employment, the difficult process of getting in is motivated by the risk of having incompetent
    doctors with numerous lives at stake. The success of the Furstenberg conservative management program has
    been largely dependent upon the strict adherence by the patient to that specific professionally
    prescribed, low-sodium diet.

  16. 16 les mer May 8, 2014 at 3:10 pm

    “Arlington – Arlington, TX is the 50-th largest city in the United States and the 7th largest city in Texas. As seen in Tampa Bay’s Best Wedding and Party Planner. While performing the tracking trial the handler puts his his dog on a 33 foot leash and follows him around the course.

  17. 17 ace diet supplement May 8, 2014 at 3:40 pm

    ‘ You are a US citizen, residing in USA from past 6 months.
    Along with this, you feel less jittery and more enthusiastic towards
    exercising. Save yourself some cash and a lot of unnecessary frustration
    by changing your eating habits and getting active.

  18. 18 Dannielle May 8, 2014 at 8:12 pm

    Ahaa, its pleasant dialogue concerning this piece of writing
    here at this weblog, I have read all that, so at this time me also commenting
    at this place.

  19. 19 Bill May 10, 2014 at 12:34 am

    Every Blackberry that’s offered has its personal unlock
    code that is specific for the phone. These fees can range anywhere from
    five to forty dollars. But the reason one purchases a used phone is to
    save money and by paying a termination fee, you kill the purpose.

  20. 20 maxi taxi sydney May 10, 2014 at 1:30 am

    The V5 In-Taxi advertising tablet counteracts all
    of these issues by displaying vivid, crisp
    advertisements to passengers using a high contrast and high-brightness (sunlight readable) LCD display panel.
    cab4one can transport one passenger + luggage from Doctors
    Pond, Great Dunmow Taxis to Stansted Airport for just.

    It doesn’t need to be spotless, but most companies don’t want to
    see more than two moving violations in the last three years.

  21. 21 cuticles May 11, 2014 at 4:58 am

    Hi there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you
    using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because
    I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options
    for another platform. I would be great if you could point me
    in the direction of a good platform.

  22. 22 spill casino May 16, 2014 at 5:34 am

    This design is spectacular! You certainly know how to keep a reader amused.
    Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog
    (well, almost…HaHa!) Wonderful job. I really loved
    what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it.
    Too cool!

  23. 23 www.facebook.com May 17, 2014 at 6:40 pm

    This flour is the highest in protein at 50 percent and is used primarily
    to increase protein content in baked goods.
    The gluten-free products are also dairy, soy, and nut-free.
    I didn’t add any extras like Xantham gum, and didn’t have any failures.

  24. 24 diy wood projects May 20, 2014 at 12:29 pm

    In the winter, the dog’s body heat is what helps to heat the
    house. The back arm should also form a letter “L”, with the elbow facing down. Perfect if you want to be able to use the boat inside waters.

  25. 25 social Wars Cheats June 13, 2014 at 9:43 am

    Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave
    it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and
    screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and
    it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  26. 26 Russian Cat June 25, 2014 at 7:44 am

    Hi colleagues, pleasant piece of writing and fastidious urging commented here, I am genuinely enjoying by these.

  27. 27 first response pregnancy test instructions August 14, 2014 at 3:22 pm

    Scan this and there was a very trusted brand for more testing
    or too embarrassed to go on to criticize the EPA limit allows.
    A couple sits across from me in the fertility awareness
    urine for about five weeks’ gestation. Wait to take
    a pregnancy test. Levchin said he was sleeping with
    demanded too much. For the manufacturers to get a negative result, i.


  1. 1 Raspberry pi alternatives » Iphone Advice Everyone Needs To Know About Trackback on September 5, 2013 at 4:32 pm

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s




Welcome to Cartographia

Cartographia is a blog about how we use maps to represent the world around us, and how people interpret maps today and throughout history. Please feel free to send any questions, comments, or recommendations directly to me at cartographia.blog@gmail.com.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 26 other followers

%d bloggers like this: